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A.J. Brown

WR, Titans

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A.J. Brown was incredible as a rookie, and now he should be able to take the jump that is so common for second year receivers. Brown was incredibly efficient last year, putting up 1,051 yards and 8 touchdowns on only 84 targets and 52 receptions (20.2 yards per reception). That made Brown the first receiver to ever go over 1,000 yards on fewer than 90 targets. He will likely see regression in efficiency, but now that he is in his second year and has established himself as a legitimate receiver, he should get more targets to help compensate for the slightly lower efficiency. Last year Brown didn’t even see 69.4% of the Titans’ until week 9, so now that the team knows he’s their best receiver and he should take another jump in year two, his number of targets will go up dramatically. The issue is that the Titans will still be the most run-heavy team in the league, so Brown won’t see the volume that other high-end fantasy receivers see. At the same time, he is by far the best receiver on his team so he will be getting a very high market share of the targets. Expect Brown to be like a poor-man’s Davante Adams in the sense that he is easily the best receiver on a run-heavy team. Overall, A.J. Brown will see an increase in targets to make up for his likely regression in efficiency, so expect the rookie to have an even better season this year, making him worth drafting in the fourth round.

Standard Analytics-Based Projected Points: 147.2

PPR Analytics-Based Projected Points: 240

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