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Allen Robinson

WR, Bears

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Before last season many were saying Allen Robinson’s days as an elite receiver were over because he had a bad year in his first season with the Bears. The thing is, Robinson was in a new offense, needed to build chemistry with a new quarterback, and was coming off a torn ACL. Those three factors were the reasons Robinson didn’t play very well, and last year we saw what Robinson can do when healthy and used to his offense. He put up 98 receptions for 1,147 yards and 7 touchdowns and was third in the NFL in targets with 154. This was with Mitchell Trubisky throwing him the ball, so he obviously wasn’t able to do as well as certain guys with good quarterbacks. Now the Bears are bringing in Nick Foles, and though he isn't currently starting he has the chance to take over later in the year. Also, the fact that Trubisky was able to beat Foles out means that he could be better than last year. In each of the past two seasons, Robinson has ranked outside of the top-50 wide receivers in catchable target rate, target quality rating, and target accuracy. Only 72% of his targets in the past two years have been considered catchable. Before those two seasons he had Blake Bortles throwing him the ball, and we all know how bad Bortles is. Nick Foles and an improved Trubisky that beat Foles out in camp, no matter how good you think they are, are better than what Robinson has had in the past. Robinson’s target share should stay the same if Foles starts later in the year because he plays a lot of snaps (41.1%) in the slot, where the opposing team’s top corner isn’t likely going to be covering him, so he will get open a ton. Overall, Allen Robinson is being undervalued in fantasy this year and is worth drafting in the third round as a WR1.

Standard Analytics-Based Projected Points: 148.8

PPR Analytics-Based Projected Points: 244

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