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Cooper Kupp

WR, Rams

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Cooper Kupp started the year off very strong last year but finished very poorly with the exception of touchdowns. Kupp ended up with 94 receptions for 1,161 yards and 10 touchdowns, but his stats in the first eight games compared to the last eight games were vastly different. In the first eight games of the season Kupp had 58 receptions for 792 yards and 5 touchdowns (116 receptions for 1,584 yards and 10 touchdowns over the course of an entire season). In the last eight games he had 36 receptions for 369 yards and 5 touchdowns (73 receptions for 738 yards and 10 touchdowns over the course of an entire season). There are two likely reasons for Kupp’s sudden dropoff in production. The first is the fact that the Rams’ offensive line was so bad last year that they needed to switch from a 3 wide receiver set to a 2 tight end set in order to have an extra blocker. Kupp is much better in the slot than out wide, and in two tight end sets there isn’t a slot receiver, so Kupp played less and wasn’t as good when he played. The second reason is that Kupp was coming off a torn ACL and was likely experiencing some fatigue. Now that Kupp is two years removed from the ACL injury fatigue shouldn’t be as big of a deal, the Rams’ offensive line should be slightly better next year, and Brandin Cooks is gone which will open up targets for Kupp. Kupp likely won’t return to the production he saw in the first half of the season because of the offensive line, but he should end up seeing overall numbers slightly worse than those he got last year because of Cooks’s departure and the fact he will be two years removed from the torn ACL will compensate for the offensive switch. Kupp’s biggest strength next year will be his touchdowns because Jared Goff loved to throw it to him in the red zone (Kupp was top-10 in targets within the 10 yard line last year), so don’t be surprised if Kupp ends up leading the NFL in receiving touchdowns. Overall, Kupp should be able to produce a slightly worse year than the one he had last season on a much more consistent basis, so he is worth drafting in the fourth round.

Standard Analytics-Based Projected Points: 137.6

PPR Analytics-Based Projected Points: 248

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