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D.J. Moore

WR, Panthers

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D.J. Moore had his breakout season last year, coming in with 1,214 yards from scrimmage, 86 receptions, and 4 touchdowns in 14 games (not including week 16 when he got injured very early on). That paces out to 1,387 yards from scrimmage, 98 receptions, and 5 touchdowns over the course of an entire season. Keep in mind that that was with Kyle Allen and Will Grier at quarterback. To put into perspective just how bad Allen and Grier were last year, both were in the bottom three in the entire NFL amongst qualified quarterbacks in PFF’s quarterback passing grade. Now Teddy Bridgewater is in Carolina, and regardless of how good you think he is he is MUCH better than Allen and Grier. If you think Bridgewater will be good for the Panthers and successful not just on short passes but down the field (which there is an argument to be made for, as Bridgewater was fourth in the NFL in deep pass completion percentage last year with 46.7%, second in the NFL in play action completion percentage, and second in the NFL in overall accuracy rating), that will be good for Moore because he is great on deep passes. Last year Moore saw 21 total deep targets, only six of which were considered catchable. Moore caught all six of them. If Bridgewater ends up being a game manager who throws lots of short passes, it’s also good for Moore because one of his best traits is his ability after the catch. Moore could get tons of short passes and turn them into large gains. We saw last year with Michael Thomas that Teddy Bridgewater locks on to his top receiver and throws him the ball a ton (Thomas had a 32% target share in his six games with Bridgewater last year, which was top in the NFL), and Moore is the clear top guy for the Panthers, so expect tons of targets. Add in the fact that the Panther added Joe Brady, the offensive mastermind who helped LSU win a national championship last year, as their new offensive coordinator and Moore is primed to take a massive step forward. Receivers are incredibly successful in Brady’s offense. Just look at what Ja'Marr Chase (84 receptions for 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns) and Justin Jefferson (111 receptions for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns) were able to do last year. Moore is by far the best outside weapon on the Panthers so he is going to produce a ton. Overall, D.J. Moore is being severely undervalued this year and should be a steal if you are able to get him at his current ADP, as he legitimately has the upside of being the top receiver in fantasy.

Standard Analytics-Based Projected Points: 132

PPR Analytics-Based Projected Points: 242.4

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