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David Johnson

RB, Texans

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David Johnson hasn’t been the same player since his wrist injury back in 2017, averaging under four yards per carry both seasons and eventually losing the starting job to Kenyan Drake, but now he has a fresh start in Houston. The problem is that the Texans just don’t seem like a fit for Johnson. The Texans love to run the ball up the middle, which is Johnson’s weakest trait. The Texans don’t like to pass it to the running back, which is Johnson’s best trait. Plus, Duke Johnson is still there and will take some receiving work. The Texans also have a bad offensive line, which will make it very hard for Johnson to be productive. David Johnson will likely perform like he did in his 2018 season, getting tons of touches but having poor efficiency. In terms of his statistics, expect him to be worse than that 2018 season because unlike that year in which the Cardinals struggled to throw and Johnson was their only way of moving the ball, the Texans have one of the best young quarterbacks in the league and a good receiving core. Johnson will likely see 200-250 touches for around 800-1000 yards from scrimmage. The one brightside for Johnson is that he will be the main red zone option for a good offense, and now that DeAndre Hopkins is gone the Texans don’t really have a big-bodied guy to produce in the red zone so Johnson will be the first option. He could score double-digit touchdowns this year. Overall, David Johnson is not going to return to his 2016 form, but he will be a workhorse for the Texans, so he is worth drafting in the fifth round.

Standard Analytics-Based Projected Points: 124.9

PPR Analytics-Based Projected Points: 240.8

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