Many people are saying that Lamar Jackson’s season last year was too good to repeat and he is bound to regress, but that might not be the case. Last year Lamar had 3,127 passing yards, 36 passing touchdowns, and 6 interceptions along with 1,206 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns in 15 games (the Ravens rested their starters in week 17). One area that Lamar will surely regress is touchdown passes, as he threw 36 touchdowns on only 401 attempts. That means he threw a touchdown on 9% of his passes. To put into perspective how good that is, in Patrick Mahomes’s MVP season in which he threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns he threw a touchdown on 8.6% of his passes. The thing is, while Lamar will regress in passing touchdowns, he will almost definitely see positive regression in his rushing touchdowns. Last year he had only seven rushing touchdowns, only two more than the five he got in his seven starts as a rookie. The best running quarterbacks always tend to run for a ton of touchdowns. Josh Allen, for example, ran for 9 this year. Deshaun Watson had 7 and is not even near the type of runner Jackson is. Expect Jackson to see closer to 10-12 rushing scores next year. In addition, Lamar missed a lot of time last year because the Ravens were blowing so many teams out. Not only was he benched in week 17 after the Ravens clinched the top seed, he played in less than 75% of the snaps in 4 out of his 15 games because the Ravens were winning by so much that he came out in the fourth quarter. That isn’t likely to happen next year even if the Ravens are a Super Bowl-caliber team, so expect Lamar to simply play more. This, combined with an increased number of rushing touchdowns, should prevent Lamar from seeing much if any regression next year. Even though Lamar’s outlook is so good, he is NOT worth drafting in the second round because you can get other great quarterbacks late in the draft. You need to be drafting a running back in the second if any are available. If you start to get to the mid-to-late third round and he is still available, then go ahead and take him, but otherwise, stay away.