Patrick Mahomes is easily the best quarterback in fantasy after having one of the greatest seasons for a quarterback in NFL history. He finished far above every other quarterback last year, and he should be able to do it again this year. The Chiefs offense has gone through no major change this offseason, so Mahomes should be able to pick up right where he left off. Many people say to avoid Mahomes because he is going to regress, so it's not worth taking him in the late second or early third round, but nothing about Mahomes makes him seem like he will regress. These people often look at Tom Brady and Peyton Manning as examples of regression, as they are the only quarterbacks to ever throw for 50 touchdowns in a season. The thing about these examples is that the only reason Brady regressed was because he tore his ACL the next year. The year after that, Brady wasn't the same player as he was still recovering from the ACL. The next year Randy Moss got hurt and was traded the following year. After Brady lost Moss he had no chance to throw for 50 touchdowns, so this example of regression is due to change in the offense, not due to the fact that Brady couldn't throw for 50 touchdowns again. For Peyton Manning, he was 37 when he threw for 55 touchdowns and the next year he was on track to score 49 touchdowns before falling off a cliff in week 13. The next season was his last. These examples cannot possibly predict what will happen to Mahomes next year because he is 23 years old and has all of his weapons returning. Andy Reid is going to keep this offense fresh, and it's not like teams can just look at Mahomes's tape and find out how to stop him because he is so gifted athletically that it's nearly impossible. Even if Mahomes regresses he was so far ahead of every other quarterback last year that he would still be a great pick. The only quarterback even close was Matt Ryan who will regress because the Falcons defense isn't injured anymore. Overall, Mahomes makes a ton of sense to draft early despite what "experts" say. Nobody has even asked this question when evaluating Mahomes: what if he gets better? He was in his FIRST season as a starter last year, and players typically get better as they play in the league for longer. It's very rare for a player to peak in their first season. Robert Griffen III is an example, but his career was derailed by injury, so it doesn't relate to Mahomes unless he gets really unlucky. Dak Prescott is another example of somebody who regressed after their rookie year, but that was because of Ezekiel Elliott's suspension and at the beginning of last year he lacked a number one receiver with Dez Bryant off the team. Dak returned to his rookie form when the Cowboys added Amari Cooper, proving that he only regressed because of his situation, something Mahomes won't have to deal with because nothing has changed. If you are to use past examples to look at Mahomes, you should expect him to improve, not regress. He's just that good. Mahomes is worth drafting as early as 20th overall (21st if Melvin Gordon's holdout ends) in all single-quarterback leagues.