Patrick Mahomes regressed in fantasy last year like many expected, but due to his health issues he wasn’t able to produce at the rate he should next year. Last season Mahomes had 4,031 yards, 26 passing touchdowns, and 5 interceptions along with 218 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns in 14 games (more like 13.5 because he missed half a game when he got hurt). In Mahomes’s 13 full games (not including the one where he got injured and left early) he had 3,955 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and 5 interceptions along with 216 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. That equates to 4,867 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, and 6 interceptions along with 266 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Those would be great numbers, but not the elite touchdown totals many expected when drafting Mahomes so high. The difference between Mahomes and Lamar Jackson is that Jackson doesn’t necessarily need to rely on touchdowns to be an elite fantasy quarterback because he has so much rushing upside, making him more likely to have a record-breaking fantasy season. Mahomes will be fantastic if healthy, but 31 touchdown passes is not worth his current price. Those numbers would be similar to what Dak Prescott got last year, and though Prescott finished as the QB2 in fantasy, he was 90 points below Lamar Jackson. Mahomes was hurt for part of last year which likely impacted his play to an extent, so he could see closer to 40 if everything else goes right and he stays healthy this season. Even then, Lamar is untouchable in fantasy because of his rushing ability so Mahomes should never be taken before Jackson. Given the lack of depth at running back, Mahomes should NOT be drafted in the second or third round, but maybe if he’s available in the late third or fourth after Lamar has been taken, you can grab him.