Russell Wilson
QB, Seahawks
Wilson doesn't have the weapons necessary to be an elite fantasy quarterback. He struggled to produce last year due to the lack of weapons, and it's going to get even worse this year with Doug Baldwin gone. In three games without Baldwin last year Wilson was horrendous, throwing for only 490 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. Over the course of an entire season that ends up becoming only 2,613 yards, 32 touchdowns (which isn't bad), and 11 interceptions. Wilson's numbers weren't bad last year, but he was insanely efficient, and that is bound to regress this year. Last season Wilson had an 8.2% TD rate, which was significantly above his career average, and is significantly higher than any QB can sustain. Even Peyton Manning had a career 5.7% TD rate, and had just two seasons in his career above 6.5%. Wilson is guaranteed to see regression this year, and with no reason to expect his volume to go up (in fact his volume is likely to go down with Baldwin leaving), his fantasy points are going to drop dramatically. The Seahawks have stopped using designed quarterback runs with Wilson, meaning his rushing upside is not what it used to be. There are only two scenarios in which Wilson could put up elite numbers: D.K. Metcalf plays much better than expected or the Seahawks end up playing in a lot of garbage time games when the opposing defense stops being aggressive. Both seem unlikely but since Wilson is still a great quarterback, he is worth drafting as the thirteenth off the board.