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Saquon Barkley

RB, Giants

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Saquon Barkley wasn’t the same player last year in fantasy (1,441 yards from scrimmage, 8 total touchdowns, and 52 receptions in 13 games), but that was 100% due to a high ankle sprain that he suffered in week 3. High ankle sprains are notoriously hard to recover from, especially for running backs, as players typically aren’t even close to 100% until many weeks later. Saquon played through the injury starting in week 7, but he obviously wasn’t the same player because of it. Once Saquon started looking close to 100% in week 11, it was a completely different story. In the final three games in the season in which Saquon looked close to 100% and the two games before the injury, Saquon had 813 yards from scrimmage, 6 total touchdowns, and 18 catches. That equates to 2,602 yards from scrimmage, 19 total touchdowns, and 58 catches over the course of an entire season. Everyone should be happy with that type of season from a running back. This season, the Giants have improved their offensive line so Barkley will have more room to run and be even more productive. On top of that, most of the Giants’ top weapons should be able to play a full season unlike last year and Daniel Jones should improve in his sophomore season, so the Giants offense should be better. In the improved offense Barkley will have more chances to score touchdowns and be on the field longer. In addition, the Giants will be losing in fewer games which will make them want to run the ball more to drain the clock and defenses won’t be able to load the box as much. Despite this, Saquon shouldn’t be considered over Christian McCaffrey because of his receptions. Though Barkley is an incredibly talented receiver, Daniel Jones doesn’t love to throw it to the running back because he is a mobile quarterback. When he is pressured, instead of looking to dump it off to the running back, Jones looks to scramble. Because of this, Saquon isn’t going to come close to the number of catches McCaffrey gets, so in all PPR formats McCaffrey is in another tier. In Standard that isn’t as much of a problem, but McCaffrey should still be drafted over Barkley because he has less of an injury history and can be counted on to play 16 games, so he is less risky. Overall, Saquon is the surefire second overall pick but shouldn’t be considered over Christian McCaffrey.

Standard Analytics-Based Projected Points: 204.8

PPR Analytics-Based Projected Points: 259.2

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