Buccaneers at Packers

The Buccaneers were able to get a surprising win last week thanks to three interceptions by Drew Brees and now Tom Brady is right where he is comfortable in yet another conference championship. Playoff history is a major factor to consider in this game. Aaron Rodgers has only been to one Super Bowl compared to Tom Brady’s nine. Rodgers has lost his last three NFC Championship games whereas Brady has won four out of his last five AFC Championships. Brady has proven that he is capable of winning on the road in the playoffs, and with limited capacity in Green Bay, the Packers won’t have a major advantage being at home. Overall, Brady is much more experienced and has proven to be much more clutch than Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs. When it comes to matchups, the Buccaneers looked great on defense last week against the Saints, but the Packers have a significantly better offense. Aaron Rodgers is having a historic year and is looking practically unstoppable. The Packers put up 32 points on the best defense in football last week. The Buccaneers don’t have anyone capable of covering Davante Adams one-on-one and will struggle to stop Aaron Jones and the Packers’ rushing attack, enabling Green Bay to move up and down the field. On the other side of the ball, the Packers’ biggest weakness is their run defense. The Buccaneers have a solid run game, so they should be effective on the ground. Through the air, Tom Brady didn’t look great last week but was playing a great defense. Brady isn’t the same player he was in his prime, but he’s still very good. The Buccaneers have an incredible receiving core and outmatch the Packers secondary, so the Bucs should be able to move the ball through the air. This should be a close game that ends up being relatively high scoring, and ultimately, Tom Brady is much more reliable than Rodgers in close playoff games, so the Buccaneers have an edge.

Expert Prediction: Buccaneers 35, Packers 34

Analytics-Based Prediction: Packers 41, Buccaneers 33

Bills at Chiefs

This game will ultimately come down to whether or not Patrick Mahomes plays. If Mahomes suits up, this should be a great game. If not, it’ll probably be over by halftime. The Chiefs have been a great team all year, but they haven’t been the dominant force they typically are despite winning 14 games. The Bills, on the other hand, have been great this year with Josh Allen looking like the second best young quarterback in the NFL behind only Patrick Mahomes. Their defense didn’t look like the elite unit it was last year for most of the season, but last week they seemingly returned to form after holding the Ravens to only three points. If Patrick Mahomes plays, the Chiefs should be able to move the ball pretty well against the Bills. Buffalo’s defense will be able to slow the Chiefs down a little, but ultimately Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Mahomes, and co. are too much for any defense to handle. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs will likely struggle to stop Josh Allen and the Bills. The defense didn’t look good for a large portion of last week, and the Bills have a much better offense than the Browns. They can keep up with Mahomes. If Mahomes doesn’t play, the Chiefs will struggle to move the ball. Chad Henne looked solid last week, but the Browns have a significantly worse defense than the Bills and seemed shell shocked when the game was on the line. It seemed more like Cleveland choking than Henne clutching up. At the end of the day, Henne would not be able to keep up with Josh Allen. Overall, if Mahomes plays, this should be an incredibly close shootout, but ultimately, Mahomes is easier to trust than Josh Allen in a close playoff game, so the Chiefs have a tiny edge. If Mahomes is out, however, the Bills should run away with this game. With that in mind, Buffalo seems more likely to go to the Super Bowl given the fact that they could very possibly win if Mahomes suits up and will definitely win if he doesn’t.

Expert Prediction: Bills 38, Chiefs 27

Analytics-Based Prediction: Bills 33, Chiefs 30