Rams at Packers
The Rams looked great last week, beating the Seahawks with essentially a third string quarterback since Jared Goff was nowhere near 100% healthy. Cam Akers was able to take the game over on the ground and enabled the Rams to put points on the board despite their shaky quarterback situation. The Packers don’t have a remotely good run defense and the Rams’ quarterback situation will be much better, regardless of whether or not Goff starts. A healthy John Wolford is better than the unhealthy Goff that played last week. Because of this, expect the Rams to be able to move the ball pretty well against Green Bay. On the other side of the ball, the Rams have the best defense in the NFL and appear to be built to stop the Packers. Jalen Ramsey is capable of covering Davante Adams one-on-one, and if he can even remotely limit Adams’s production (which he should be able to), this Packers offense isn’t nearly as good as it has been all year. The Rams also have the third best run defense in the NFL, so Aaron Jones won’t be able to take control of this game for Green Bay. Ultimately, this game will come down to three things. First, whether or not the Rams’ quarterback, whoever that ends up being, turns the ball over. Second, the matchup between Davante Adams and Jalen Ramsey. And finally, whether or not the Packers are able to get over the postseason slump they have been in for the last decade or so. Let’s face it: Green Bay isn’t a good playoff team, and that needs to be considered when picking a winner. Shockingly enough, the Rams, despite not being as good of a team, seem more likely to win this game because they match up so well against the Packers.
Expert Prediction: Rams 27, Packers 24
Analytics-Based Prediction: Packers 28, Rams 23
Ravens at Bills
Both the Ravens and the Bills were able to overcome major postseason issues to win last week and advance to the next round of the playoffs. Lamar Jackson looked great for the Ravens, racking up over 100 rushing yards. When the game was on the line, Jackson was able to finish off the game without making a big mistake. Josh Allen put up some good stats last week with over 300 passing yards, but when the game was on the line he almost blew the game by fumbling. Allen has yet to prove that when a playoff game gets close, he is able to avoid making a mistake. In addition, the Bills were a significantly better team than the Colts all year, yet that game was incredibly close. One has to wonder how good of a playoff team Buffalo really is and whether or not they can continue to be successful in the postseason. When looking at the matchups, the Ravens will look to move the ball primarily on the ground as always. The Bills have a very average run defense, so Baltimore will definitely be able to put some points on the board. At the same time, they probably won’t be able to move up and down the field with ease. On the other side of the ball, the Bills will look to move the ball primarily through the air. The Ravens have the sixth best pass defense in the league, so Buffalo will struggle at times to move the ball. Despite that, Allen and the Bills have been so good on offense that they will be able to score some points. This game should be very close and almost seems like a toss-up. Ultimately, the Bills are at home and have been more consistent all year, so they have a slight edge.
Expert Prediction: Bills 30, Ravens 28
Analytics-Based Prediction: Ravens 34, Bills 32
Browns at Chiefs
The Browns looked fantastic last week, thrashing the Steelers on their way to their first playoff win in forever. Cleveland looked dominant on the ground and was able to get multiple turnovers. The Browns were able to score 48 points against a top-3 defense, so imagine what they could do to the Kansas City defense. The Chiefs were average on that side of the ball and their biggest weakness is their run defense. The run game just happens to be the Browns’ biggest strength, as they have Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to pound the rock. The strategy for the Browns will be to run the ball down the Chiefs’ throats to drain the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. On the other side of the ball, the Browns were able to get a ton of turnovers last week, but they also gave up 37 points and over 500 passing yards. Patrick Mahomes will tear them apart. It’s that simple. This game will likely be a shootout with the Browns dominating on the ground and the Chiefs dominating through the air. It will probably end up being a lot closer than many people expect, but ultimately, you can never bet against Patrick Mahomes, especially in the playoffs.
Expert Prediction: Chiefs 45, Browns 41
Analytics-Based Prediction: Chiefs 44, Browns 31
Buccaneers at Saints
The Buccaneers looked bad last week against a team that was coming into the playoffs with a losing record and was starting a backup quarterback. They simply haven’t performed as well as their talent would indicate. Many people see Tom Brady in the playoffs with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Gronk as assuming that they’ll be in the Super Bowl, but most of those guys aren’t the players they once were. If they were, they’d have gone undefeated and easily won their division. Instead, they’re a wild card team that’s going up against a division rival that has beaten the breaks off them twice. The Saints have looked like the significantly better team in both matchups between the Saints and the Buccaneers this year. The Saints have a top-5 defense and have proven that they are fully capable of keeping this Buccaneers offense in check. On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers defense has dropped off since a great start to the season and will struggle to defend Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas, and all of the Saints’ other weapons. The only reason to think the Buccaneers have a shot in this game is the fact that it’s hard to beat the same team three times in a season. That may be true, but we’ve seen it happen many times before, so it isn’t a massive problem. Overall, this game should be somewhat close because both teams are good, but the Saints should be able to win.
Expert Prediction: Saints 31, Buccaneers 24
Analytics-Based Prediction: Saints 33, Buccaneers 23