Vikings at Lions
Both the Vikings and the Lions looked horrendous last week and are now just looking to get through the rest of the season. This game should be relatively close because of the fact that it’s a divisional matchup and neither team is significantly better than the other. Dalvin Cook won’t be able to play this week, so the Vikings won’t be able to rely on the ground game like they traditionally have this year. With Cook out, Minnesota will be significantly worse than they typically are. Add on the fact that the Lions are at home, and Detroit seems like it has a slight advantage in this matchup.
Expert Prediction: Lions 28, Vikings 27
Analytics-Based Prediction: Vikings 30, Lions 28
Falcons at Buccaneers
The Falcons played better than expected last week, but they ended up losing a close game like they seemingly always do. The Buccaneers proved a couple weeks ago that they are capable of beating the Falcons even if seemingly everything goes wrong, so there is no reason to expect Atlanta to win. Given that this is a divisional matchup and the Falcons have played well in their last few games, Atlanta may be able to keep it close, but the Buccaneers should eventually be able to come away with a win.
Expert Prediction: Buccaneers 35, Falcons 28
Analytics-Based Prediction: Buccaneers 38, Falcons 30
Jets at Patriots
The Jets are on a shocking two game win streak that has officially taken them out of the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. Given how poorly the Patriots played last week, it is obvious that New England is already looking towards next year and it seems likely that the Patriots are just looking for a high draft pick at this point. Even though the Browns had Covid last week, the Jets’ win was impressive. Cleveland still had the ability to move the ball on the ground and weren’t severely affected on defense. Overall, the Jets have actually looked better than the Patriots recently, and the last matchup between these two teams was close, so the Jets are seemingly more likely to win this game than New England.
Expert Prediction: Jets 27, Patriots 25
Analytics-Based Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 21
Dolphins at Bills
Both the Dolphins and the Bills have a lot to play for this week with Buffalo looking to clinch the second seed and Miami looking to secure a playoff spot. With Ryan Fitzpatrick testing positive for Covid, the Dolphins may have other players who were exposed and be forced to start multiple backups. Also, given how poorly Tua played last week, Miami should be concerned about their chances of winning with the rookie starting. The combination of the uncertainty surrounding the Dolphins and the fact that the Bills have been a slightly better team this year make Buffalo seem likely to win this game, but don’t be surprised if it goes the other way.
Expert Prediction: Bills 30, Dolphins 27
Analytics-Based Prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 25
Steelers at Browns
The Steelers were able to mount a surprising comeback last week and looked significantly better than they had in their previous three games. That being said, Pittsburgh was still far from the team they appeared to be for most of the season and should just be viewed as a low-quality playoff team at this point. The Browns looked awful last week, but it’s important to note that they had Covid spread throughout the locker room. This would likely be a pretty close game under normal circumstances, but with the Steelers resting many of their starters, Cleveland should almost definitely end up with the win.
Expert Prediction: Browns 34, Steelers 17
Analytics-Based Prediction: Browns 30, Steelers 20
Cowboys at Giants
The Cowboys have now won three out of their last five games and are somehow contenders for the NFC East title. They will be extremely motivated to win this game, and given how they’ve played recently, they very possibly could. The Giants, on the other hand, are on a three game losing streak after looking really good in the middle of the season. In spite of that, however, they are in the same position as the Cowboys: a win plus a Washington loss gives them the division title. This will be a very close game that should come down to the wire, but ultimately, the Cowboys have been playing better recently, so they have the slight edge.
Expert Prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 25
Analytics-Based Prediction: Cowboys 32, Giants 24
Ravens at Bengals
The Ravens have seemingly hit their stride after encountering a rough patch in the middle of the year and are in a great position to make the playoffs. The Bengals are on a two game win streak, however, and one of those wins was against a playoff team in the Steelers. Cincinnati has a chance to make this game interesting, especially considering that this is a divisional matchup. If the Ravens lose, they risk potentially dropping out of the playoffs, and for that reason, they are going to take this game very seriously. Typically when good teams lose to bad ones it’s because they took the bad team for granted, but with Baltimore unlikely to do that this game should end up being a relatively easy win.
Expert Prediction: Ravens 35, Bengals 24
Analytics-Based Prediction: Ravens 27, Bengals 18
Jaguars at Colts
The Jaguars have officially won the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes, so despite their horrendous record most fans will be chalking this season up as a massive win for Jacksonville. The Colts desperately need a win after last week’s loss to the Steelers. If they lose this game, they will almost definitely miss the playoffs. The Jaguars have given no indication that they are capable of winning a game recently, so the Colts should be able to win with ease. They should be cautious, however, as Indianaopolis lost to the Jaguars in week one. That may have been long ago, but it’s still slightly worrisome.
Expert Prediction: Colts 32, Jaguars 23
Analytics-Based Prediction: Colts 33, Jaguars 29
Titans at Texans
The Titans need to rebound after last week’s embarrassment against the Packers, because if they don’t, they run the risk of missing the playoffs. Prior to last week, Tennessee had appeared to hit its stride right on time, but the Packers demonstrated the fact that the Titans are very beatable. The Texans have been bad all year and wouldn’t normally be a threat to a playoff-caliber team like the Titans, but they are a divisional opponent that gave Tennessee problems earlier this year. That is a slight cause for concern, but ultimately, the Titans know how to win when they need to, so expect them to pull this one off.
Expert Prediction: Titans 30, Texans 20
Analytics-Based Prediction: Titans 32, Texans 21
Cardinals at Rams
This will be a huge game for both the Rams and the Cardinals, as the winner will make the playoffs and the loser runs the risk of dropping out. Both the Cardinals and the Rams have hit a cold streak recently, with each team being 2-3 in its last 5 games. The Rams are on a two game losing streak including a game in which they lost to a winless team. It’s fair to say that neither team is playing like it deserves a playoff spot right now. This game should be close considering that both teams are pretty evenly matched and it’s a divisional game, but ultimately, the Rams have a slight edge because the odds of them losing a third game in a row are very low.
Expert Prediction: Rams 31, Cardinals 28
Analytics-Based Prediction: Cardinals 35, Rams 31
Saints at Panthers
The Saints have looked great since Drew Brees came back, but Alvin Kamara recently tested positive for Covid and that could throw off their entire trajectory. Covid will be somewhat of a distraction with other players potentially testing positive later on. In addition, losing a player of Kamara’s-caliber dramatically affects the Saints. They simply aren’t the same team without him. New Orleans would have been in a position in which the Panthers would be an easy win, but now this game is far from a certainty. The Panthers had a solid win last week after they went on a losing streak, so they will be coming into this game with some momentum. This game may be close, but ultimately, the Saints should be able to pull off the win.
Expert Prediction: Saints 27, Panthers 23
Analytics-Based Prediction: Saints 28, Panthers 20
Packers at Bears
The Packers looked great last week against the Titans, and if they can keep playing like that they will have very real Super Bowl hopes. The Bears are now on a three game win streak that has put them back in the playoff picture. They have looked great, winning two of those games by double digits. Unfortunately for the Bears, they are nowhere near the level of the Packers and Green Bay still has a lot to play for. Chicago may be able to keep this game close since it’s a divisional matchup, but the Packers will almost certainly end up winning.
Expert Prediction: Packers 30, Bears 25
Analytics-Based Prediction: Packers 28, Bears 24
Chargers at Chiefs
The Chiefs have clinched the top seed in the AFC and will be resting their starters for this matchup. Because of that, the Chiefs team we see this week will be far from the Super Bowl-caliber team we usually see. The Chargers have looked great since their loss to the Patriots, as they are on a three game win streak, and were able to keep up with the Chiefs earlier in the season. Los Angeles might have had a chance to beat Kansas City even if the Chiefs didn’t rest their starters, so the Chargers are in a great position to win. Expect this one to be over by halftime.
Expert Prediction: Chargers 38, Chiefs 14
Analytics-Based Prediction: Chargers 30, Chiefs 27
Seahawks at 49ers
The 49ers were able to get a surprising win last week and will look to continue to play like that in order to potentially win this matchup. The Seahawks still have a lot to play for, as they still have an outside shot at getting the top seed. The 49ers should be able to keep this game relatively close because it’s a divisional matchup, but they haven’t looked nearly as good as the Seahawks all year and have given no indication that things will change. The one thing going for the 49ers is that they have now pulled off an unexpected win over two divisional opponents in the Rams and the Cardinals, so they have a chance to pull off a third with the Seahawks. That seems unlikely, though.
Expert Prediction: Seahawks 29, 49ers 24
Analytics-Based Prediction: Seahawks 34, 49ers 27
Raiders at Broncos
Both the Broncos and the Raiders have looked really bad recently, with Las Vegas having lost five if its last six games (its only win was a game in which they almost lost to the winless Jets). The Broncos have lost four out of their last six games, but the opponents they have faced have been significantly better than those the Raiders have faced. Vegas has looked like arguably the worst team in the league in the last portion of the year while Denver has looked bad, but not horrible. Throw in the fact that the Broncos are at home, and they should be able to win this game.
Expert Prediction: Broncos 26, Raiders 21
Analytics-Based Prediction: Raiders 25, Broncos 23
Washington at Eagles
Jalen Hurts has played very well for the Eagles considering that he’s a rookie, but Philadelphia has still been horrible with him on the field. The Eagles are now out of the running in the NFC East, whereas Washington is very much alive in the divisional race. Washington has lost two games in a row, but those were without Alex Smith on the field. Smith is expecting to start in this game, so that will no longer be an issue. With Smith starting again, Washington will look much more like the team that had gone on a four game win streak prior to Smith getting hurt. That, combined with how bad the Eagles have looked recently, make Washington highly likely to come away with a win and clinch the NFC East.
Expert Prediction: Washington 27, Eagles 17
Analytics-Based Prediction: Washington 28, Eagles 14