Colts at Bills

The Colts and the Bills are both coming into this game on hot streaks. The Colts defense hasn’t been nearly what it was earlier in the season, so they will need to rebound if they are to have a chance of beating the Bills. Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level and Stefon Diggs has been difficult for almost every cornerback to stop. The Colts don’t have a cornerback capable of taking on Diggs one-on-one, so they will need to double team him. That’ll open up the rest of the offense for Allen to work with, making it likely that the Bills are able to move the ball. On the other side of the ball, both the Colts offense and the Bills defense have been above average this year. Buffalo has not been great against the run, however, and that is the strength of the Colts offense. Indianapolis should be able to win in the trenches and control the clock by moving the ball on the ground. The issue with being a run-first offense, however, is that it’s very hard to score consistently, and Indianapolis will likely need to score over 30 points to keep up with Josh Allen. That’s certainly possible, but it doesn’t seem likely. For that reason, the Bills should be expected to win this game.

Expert Prediction: Bills 35, Colts 27

Analytics-Based Prediction: Bills 38, Colts 34

Rams at Seahawks

The Rams are not peaking as they enter the playoffs, as they are 3-2 in their last five games. The Seahawks, on the other hand, have won five games in a row. The competitiveness of this game will ultimately be determined by whether or not Jared Goff plays. He is uncertain to play and the Rams won’t disclose whether or not he will be healthy. If Goff is able to play, this game should be close. Both teams are pretty evenly matched, which is proven by the fact that they split their regular season series. The Seahawks will have difficulty moving the ball against the Rams’ top ranked defense. Jalen Ramsey can take D.K. Metcalf out of the game and Los Angeles can double-team Tyler Lockett. That’ll give Aaron Donald time to get to Russell Wilson. Wilson and the Seahawks offense will have a very hard time moving the ball. On the other side of the ball, things will be determined by Goff’s availability. If Goff plays, the Rams should be able to move the ball somewhat efficiently, though their offense hasn’t been great this year. If Goff doesn’t play, however, the Rams will put up next to no points and turn the ball over multiple times. If the game is close, the Seahawks should have a slight advantage due to their postseason experience and the fact that they tend to win close games. If Goff doesn’t play, however, expect a demolition. Either way, Seattle should be expected to win this game.

Expert Prediction: Seahawks 21, Rams 14

Analytics-Based Prediction: Seahawks 24, Rams 20

Buccaneers at Washington

Washington had been on a roll with Alex Smith starting, but he is injured yet again and will be missing this game. That means Washington will be forced to start Taylor Heinicke this week. The defense has been the thing carrying Washington through the season, however. Washington’s secondary is good, but it’s not capable of covering all of the Buccaneers receivers, especially with Antonio Brown starting to get acclimated to the offense. They will need to rely on its front seven to get pressure to Tom Brady quickly. If Brady has one weakness, it’s the fact that he isn’t very good when faced with pressure. On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers defense is significantly better than the Washington offense, especially with Smith injured. Washington will be able to put some points on the board, but they simply don’t have enough talent in their skill positions and will turn the ball over multiple times with an inexperienced quarterback. With that in mind, it will be very hard for Washington to keep up with the Buccaneers. Overall, Washington has a chance of beating the Bucs if they are able to get pressure on Tom Brady, but even if they can do that they are very unlikely to win given the fact that Smith is out. This game will probably end up being a demolition.

Expert Prediction: Buccaneers 28, Washington 10

Analytics-Based Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Washington 13

Ravens at Titans

The Ravens are now coming into this game on a five game win streak and have looked great late in the season. The Titans, on the other hand, haven’t looked very good recently. They were killed by the Packers a couple weeks ago and it took overtime for them to beat one of the worst teams in the league. Derrick Henry has looked borderline unstoppable this year, piling up over 2,000 rushing yards, but the Ravens have a solid run defense. Then again, based on their game in the playoffs last year, Baltimore will probably struggle to stop Henry anyway. The Titans should be able to utilize the run to open up the passing game by forcing the defense to focus their attention on stopping Henry, enabling their offense to move efficiently down the field. On the other side of the ball, Baltimore’s offense has looked incredible recently. The Ravens have gotten 34 or more points in four out of their last five games with two performances of 40 points or more. The Titans don’t have a good defense whatsoever and should struggle to get off the field. On paper, the Ravens seem like a good bet to win, but remember, Lamar Jackson has been horrible in the playoffs thus far in his career. The Titans, however, were able to make a run to the AFC Championship last year, so they know how to win in the postseason. This one will be close, but ultimately, the Titans have a slight edge because of their recent success in the playoffs.

Expert Prediction: Titans 34, Ravens 31

Analytics-Based Prediction: Ravens 44, Titans 41

Bears at Saints

The Bears were able to make a run to the playoffs by beating up on bad teams, but last week showed that when they are faced with an actual opponent, they get destroyed. The Saints have proven that they are a Super Bowl contender time and time again this year, so there’s really no way they lose to the Bears. The Saints were able to destroy the Panthers last week even with Alvin Kamara off the field. If Kamara plays this week, New Orleans will rely on him on the ground and mix it up a little bit in the passing game with Michael Thomas and some more Kamara. If he’s out, the Saints can still move the ball on the ground with Latavius Murray and spread the ball around a little bit more through the air. Either way, they will be able to move the ball well. On the other side of the ball, the Saints have a top 5 defense and the Bears have Mitchell Trubisky. It’s pretty obvious which side will do better. The Saints should be able to get multiple turnovers and won’t allow the Bears to move down the field whatsoever. Expect this one to be a blowout.

Expert Prediction: Saints 35, Bears 10

Analytics-Based Prediction: Saints 40, Bears 17

Browns at Steelers

Last week, the Browns struggled to beat the Steelers backups, so they should be scared now that they need to go up against starters. One possible explanation for the Browns’ horrendous performance last week is that they might have just assumed they’d win because they were playing backups and put less effort into the game, but one would think that with their first playoff berth in forever on the line, they’d try their best. And prior to that game, the Browns lost to the Jets. They have not looked good whatsoever, and given their inexperience in the playoffs, it’s uncertain whether or not they will play as well as they can. The Steelers have been on a cold streak as well, but they were able to beat the Colts in their last game with starters. They also have a ton of experience in the playoffs, which gives them a major advantage. On top of all of this, the Browns have had multiple coaches test positive for Covid and could potentially have some players ineligible for this game. Even if all their players can play, Covid is always a big distraction that makes teams play worse. With all this in mind, it seems unlikely that the Browns are able to actually pull this game off. It may be close, but ultimately, expect the Steelers to win.

Expert Prediction: Steelers 27, Browns 24

Analytics-Based Prediction: Browns 30, Steelers 28