Patriots at Falcons
The Patriots looked incredible last week. They’ve now won five out of their last six games including four in a row. New England is arguably the best team in the AFC at this point of the season. They have an elite defense and an incredible ground game. The Patriots have scored 45+ points in back to back home games and have outscored their opponents 150 to 50 over the past four games. It’s safe to say the Patriots are back. The Falcons looked terrible last week against the Cowboys and have always struggled against the Patriots. This game should be a relatively easy victory for New England.
Expert Prediction: Patriots 35, Falcons 17
Analytics-Based Prediction: Patriots 41, Falcons 20
Ravens at Bears
The Ravens were looking like possibly the best team in the AFC going into last week, but a loss to the Dolphins has set them back significantly. Miami has been bad all year and Baltimore struggled a lot. The Ravens have some serious holes, but they will look to get back on track against a Bears team that has been mediocre all season. If the Ravens play like they did last week, they’ll probably lose, but assuming Baltimore is able to rebound as expected, they should be able to win this game pretty handily.
Expert Prediction: Ravens 28, Bears 17
Analytics-Based Prediction: Ravens 31, Bears 24
Packers at Vikings
The Vikings were finally able to pull off a close win to keep their playoff hopes alive, but this week they need to play a Super Bowl contender in the Packers. Green Bay has been great on defense the last couple of weeks, holding the Chiefs to 13 points and shutting out the Seahawks. The offense hasn’t been great, however, and the Packers played the Chiefs during Patrick Mahomes’ cold streak and Russell Wilson didn’t look fully recovered on Sunday. The Vikings will be able to score more points. This game might be closer than expected because the Vikings have kept many games close and it is a divisional matchup, but the Packers own this division and will ultimately beat the Vikings.
Expert Prediction: Packers 30, Vikings 28
Analytics-Based Prediction: Packers 35, Vikings 31
Colts at Bills
The Bills were able to rebound last week, but they were playing the Jets. Mike White came back down to earth and then some and the performance as a whole was one to forget for the Jets. The Bills, truth be told, haven’t beaten a single notable opponent this year. They beat the Chiefs, but Kansas City was playing the worst they’ve played since Patrick Mahomes took over. They were losing to everyone. The Colts are probably better than any team the Bills have beat. Buffalo has struggled against strong rushing teams (just look at what happened when they played the Titans), so the Colts should be able to move the ball. If Indianapolis is able to control the clock and keep Josh Allen off the field, they can come away with a win.
Expert Prediction: Colts 35, Bills 34
Analytics-Based Prediction: Bills 28, Colts 23
Lions at Browns
The Lions have found a way to lose in every way possible this year. Last week, they didn’t lose, but they also didn’t win. Detroit had the chance to miss a game winning field goal and the kicker absolutely shanked it. That ball wasn’t even close to the crossbar and the attempt wasn’t even over 50 yards. No matter how bad the Lions play, they seem doomed to finish the year without a win. The Browns were awful last week, but there’s no chance they will find a way to lose to the Lions. This game will probably be close like most of the Lions games, but Detroit will choke in the end.
Expert Prediction: Browns 28, Lions 27
Analytics-Based Prediction: Browns 27, Lions 24
Washington at Panthers
Something about Cam makes the Panthers win. Even though he barely played, Carolina was able to get an upset and kill the Cardinals. Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins were out, but Arizona just beat the 49ers without them. The win was very impressive from the Panthers, and now Cam will take over as the starter. Washington was also able to get a huge win over the Buccaneers, but that game seemed to be more on Tampa Bay playing bad than Washington playing well. Washington has been bad all year, and the Panthers need a win to stay alive in the playoff picture, so the Panthers have the edge.
Expert Prediction: Panthers 24, Washington 20
Analytics-Based Prediction: Washington 21, Panthers 20
Texans at Titans
The Titans were able to get another win without Derrick Henry over a solid Saints team. The Saints were without their quarterback, though, and Tennsee’s win over the Rams looks less impressive now that Los Angeles has lost in back to back blowouts. The Titans are definitely flawed, but the Texans are one of the worst teams in the NFL. Tennessee should be able to win this game easily.
Expert Prediction: Titans 30, Texans 10
Analytics-Based Prediction: Titans 44, Texans 13
49ers at Jaguars
The 49ers looked back to their old Super Bowl form last week against the Rams, but that was almost certainly a fluke. Remember that the 49ers just got killed by the Cardinals without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. The Jaguars were impressively able to keep up with the Colts to an extent and they’re 2-2 in their last four games. Jacksonville isn’t as bad as people think they are. With that being said, the 49ers are still a much better team. If San Francisco can continue playing like they did last week, they could make a playoff push, but they should be able to win this game regardless.
Expert Prediction: 49ers 24, Jaguars 17
Analytics-Based Prediction: Jaguars 26, 49ers 23
Dolphins at Jets
The Dolphins looked back to last season’s form when they made a push for the playoffs, but it’s probably too late for Miami to get into the postseason this year. The remainder of their schedule is relatively easy, but they’d probably need to win out if they want to make the playoffs, and there’s no chance they go from 2-7 to 8-0. The Jets looked like they usually do last week. It’s safe to chalk up New York’s two big wins as massive flukes. The Dolphins are far and away the better team, so Miami should win this one with ease.
Expert Prediction: Dolphins 31, Jets 14
Analytics-Based Prediction: Dolphins 28, Jets 27
Saints at Eagles
The Saints were impressively able to keep up with the Titans last week, although Derrick Henry was out. New Orleans isn’t looking like a playoff-caliber team without Jameis Winston, but they can still compete. The Eagles had an impressive game last week, but Philadelpia has been inconsistent all year. Sometimes they look great and other times they look like one of the league’s worst teams. This game will come down to what Eagles team shows up. Ultimately, the Eagles have looked better since the Saints lost Jameis Winston and they’re at home, so they have a slight edge.
Expert Prediction: Eagles 26, Saints 24
Analytics-Based Prediction: Saints 24, Eagles 23
Bengals at Raiders
The Raiders seem like they have gone through too much off the field to remain as competitive as they were earlier in the season. They will likely struggle from here on out. The Bengals have also fallen off, with back to back horrible losses. With both teams fighting to stay in playoff positioning, this game will be close. At the end of the day, the Raiders’ off-field problems combined with the fact that the Bengals will be hungry and coming off a bye gives Cincinnati a slight edge.
Expert Prediction: Bengals 31, Raiders 30
Analytics-Based Prediction: Raiders 33, Bengals 30
Cowboys at Chiefs
The Chiefs looked like they were back to their old selves last week, but that was one game against a team dealing with significant off-the-field problems. Time will tell if the Chiefs are actually able to get back on track. The Cowboys looked incredible last week after their fluke loss to the Broncos. Dallas is back and looking like a Super Bowl-contender once again. If the Chiefs play like they did last week, they’ll have a chance, but if they look like they have at other points of the season, Dallas should win with ease. Because of that, Dallas has the advantage.
Expert Prediction: Cowboys 38, Chiefs 30
Analytics-Based Prediction: Cowboys 40, Chiefs 37
Cardinals at Seahawks
The Seahawks continued to look bad despite Russell Wilson’s return, which isn’t very surprising considering how poorly they played earlier this year even with Wilson at quarterback. The Cardinals looked horrible without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, but the Seahawks got shut out by a Packers defense that isn’t elite by any means. If Kyler and Hopkins play, this game should be a blowout. Otherwise, it’ll probably be close, but the Cardinals still have an edge regardless.
Expert Prediction: Cardinals 28, Seahawks 21
Analytics-Based Prediction: Cardinals 31, Seahawks 27
Steelers at Chargers
The Steelers looked horrible without Big Ben last week, but they’ve never seemed like one of the AFC’s top teams. Pittsburgh has benefitted from an easy schedule, but they haven’t done anything overly impressive recently. The Chargers have struggled since their loss to the Patriots, but they still look like a solid team. This game will be close, but the Steelers are due for a loss and the Chargers seem unlikely to lose two games in a row, so Los Angeles should win in a close one.
Expert Prediction: Chargers 24, Steelers 23
Analytics-Based Prediction: Steelers 17, Chargers 14
Giants at Buccaneers
The Buccaneers looked really bad last week, but they’ll bounce back. The Giants have been able to keep up with some good teams this year, so this game might be closer than expected. Tampa Bay will be highly motivated to win this game, especially with the NFC so loaded, and Tom Brady rarely loses two games in a row. Because of that, even if this game ends up being close, they can expect to win.
Expert Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Giants 27
Analytics-Based Prediction: Buccaneers 25, Giants 17