Rams at Seahawks

The Rams looked bad last week, but they probably got overconfident after beating the Buccaneers and didn’t focus as much as they should have. Their loss to the Cardinals should be a wakeup call. The Seahawks looked to be in position to lose before Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt last week, and they haven’t been impressive all year. The Rams will want to rebound and they are simply a better team than the Seahawks, so expect them to get the win.

Expert Prediction: Rams 34, Seahawks 28

Analytics-Based Prediction: Rams 31, Seahawks 21

Jets at Falcons

The Jets are coming off of a shocking win against the Titans, but that seemed like more of a fluke than anything else. The Jets aren’t suddenly a team that can expect to win more than three games this year. The Falcons have been bad all year, but they’ve still shown the ability to compete against decent teams. The Falcons should be able to move the ball well against this poor Jets defense, and Zach Wilson will turn it over a couple times. That should be enough for Atlanta to pull away and get a win.

Expert Prediction: Falcons 28, Jets 17

Analytics-Based Prediction: Falcons 24, Jets 10

Patriots at Texans

The Patriots looked really good last week, but they’re still 1-3. New England is a fumble and a missed field goal away from being 3-1, however. The issue is that the Patriots have seemingly lost every close game they’ve played in since Tom Brady left. They never seem to close. For that reason, it seems unlikely that the Patriots will do much this year, but if they’re able to build on their performance from last week and find a way to win close games, they have a chance to sneak into the playoffs. The Texans are a horrible team that shouldn’t give the Patriots any problems. New England isn’t the team it once was, but they can surely beat Davis Mills and co.

Expert Prediction: Patriots 31, Texans 7

Analytics-Based Prediction: Patriots 38, Texans 3

Lions at Vikings

The Vikings are 1-3, but they’ve lost three close games, including outings against playoff-caliber teams like the Cardinals and Browns. Once Minnesota’s schedule eases up, they could compete for the playoffs. The Lions have also found a way to keep themselves in many games, but they always seem to lose close matchups. This game might be closer than many expect simply because of how close many of the Lions’ games have been, but the Vikings should ultimately expect to win.

Expert Prediction: Vikings 30, Lions 24

Analytics-Based Prediction: Vikings 27, Lions 26

Eagles at Panthers

The Eagles have looked pretty good this year outside of their big loss to the Cowboys. Philadelphia killed the Falcons and kept up with the 49ers and Chiefs for most of their games. The Panthers have been very good as well, but two of their three wins are against the Texans and Jets. The Saints win was impressive, but that seemed to be an off day for New Orleans. The Panthers are still a good team, but not as good as their record would indicate. This game will be close, but the Panthers have been a better team this year and are at home, so they have a slight edge.

Expert Prediction: Panthers 24, Eagles 21

Analytics-Based Prediction: Eagles 25, Panthers 23

Saints at Washington

The Saints have been incredibly inconsistent this year. In some games they are playing incredibly well and look like a high-end playoff team and in other games they look like one of the worst teams in the league. That makes sense, because this is a very new team that is used to winning but lacks the talent necessary to be a top-contender. The Saints look a lot like last year’s Patriots when they were starting the season. New Orleans is likely to end up being a mediocre team that misses the playoffs. Washington, on the other hand, has looked bad this year. Their only wins are over the Falcons and the Giants. This game comes down to how well the Saints play. If New Orleans plays like they did in weeks 1 and 3, they’ll win. If not, they’ll lose. Week 5 is when inconsistent teams usually come back down to earth, so Washington has a slight advantage.

Expert Prediction: Washington 27, Saints 24

Analytics-Based Prediction: Saints 28, Washington 20

Titans at Jaguars

The Titans looked awful last week. It’s pretty hard to lose to the Jets without playing horrendously, to be honest. The Titans should be healthier this week, as they were missing both Julio Jones. The Jaguars looked decent against the Bengals, but they are still one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Titans aren’t going to lose to two bottom five teams in a row, so expect Tennessee to win this one.

Expert Prediction: Titans 35, Jaguars 24

Analytics-Based Prediction: Titans 44, Jaguars 24

Dolphins at Buccaneers

Ever since losing Tua, the Dolphins haven’t been a good team. They might lose every game they have without him. The Buccaneers have struggled each of the past two weeks and have many injuries, but they’re still a very good team. Tampa Bay will want to build on a big win over the Patriots last week, and the Dolphins won’t be able to compete without Tua. Expect the Buccaneers to win this one with ease.

Expert Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Dolphins 17

Analytics-Based Prediction: Buccaneers 35, Dolphins 21

Packers at Bengals

The Packers have looked like an elite team again after getting destroyed in week 1. They should once again compete for a shot at the Super Bowl. The Bengals have been surprisingly good this year, as they are 3-1 to start the season. Cincinnati hasn’t beat any great teams yet, however. The Packers will be able to move the ball very well against this poor Bengals defense, and on the other side of the ball, Cincinnati will be productive, but they’re unlikely to keep up.

Expert Prediction: Packers 35, Bengals 30

Analytics-Based Prediction: Packers 33, Bengals 23

Broncos at Steelers

The Steelers have been awful since they started off last season so well. Outside of their surprising win against the Bills, the Steelers have struggled. Their defense is good, but Ben Roethlisberger is washed and the offensive line is atrocious. The Broncos have been solid this year, but their three wins are against the Giants, Jets, and Jaguars. This game should be close because neither team is incredible, but the Steelers are due for a win after losing three in a row and are at home, so they have an edge.

Expert Prediction: Steelers 20, Broncos 17

Analytics-Based Prediction: Broncos 24, Steelers 18

Bears at Raiders

The Bears are going to be starting Justin Fields for the remainder of the season, but Fields hasn’t been able to massively improve Chicago’s offense thus far. The Bears have struggled this year, with their only wins being over the Lions and the Bengals. Justin Fields has struggled, though he has shown flashes of potential. The Raiders have been great this year, but they had their worst game of the season last week against the Chargers. Las Vegas will look to get back on track this week, especially with the Chiefs only a game behind them. The Raiders should win with ease.

Expert Prediction: Raiders 30, Bears 20

Analytics-Based Prediction: Raiders 31, Bears 17

Browns at Chargers

The Browns and Chargers have both been good this year, but the Chargers have looked especially impressive in their wins over the Chiefs and Raiders. Justin Herbert has taken a second year jump that makes him one of the best quarterbacks in the AFC. The Browns have struggled at times, especially last week against the Vikings, but they are 3-1 and look as advertised. This game could be a statement win by the Chargers; if they are able to beat the Chiefs, Raiders, and Browns all in a row, they’ll establish themselves as one of the AFC’s best teams. This should be a close game, but given how well Los Angeles is playing, the Chargers have an advantage.

Expert Prediction: Chargers 34, Browns 31

Analytics-Based Prediction: Browns 28, Chargers 27

Giants at Cowboys

The Giants were able to get a surprising win over the Saints last week, but they’re still a bad team. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have looked like one of the best teams in the NFC this year. They have arguably the best offense in the NFL and have looked significantly better on defense. They are surely the best team in the NFC East and will look to pull even further ahead in this game. The Giants won’t be able to defend all of Dallas’s weapons and Daniel Jones won’t be able to keep up.

Expert Prediction: Cowboys 35, Giants 21

Analytics-Based Prediction: Cowboys 41, Giants 24

49ers at Cardinals

The Cardinals have looked like arguably the best team in the NFL through four weeks. They are the only remaining undefeated team and just annihilated the Rams, a Super Bowl contender. Kyler Murray is playing at an MVP level and this Cardinals defense has looked very good. The 49ers struggled a lot once Trey Lance came in for Jimmy Garoppolo, and there’s a chance that Garoppolo misses this week’s game as well. Either way, it’ll be hard for the 49ers to keep up with Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. If Garoppolo plays, this game should be relatively close and if Lance plays it’ll likely be a decimation, but either way the Cardinals should expect to win.

Expert Prediction: Cardinals 32, 49ers 21

Analytics-Based Prediction: Cardinals 36, 49ers 28

Bills at Chiefs

The Bills have looked like the best team in the AFC, and possibly the entire NFL, since their loss to the Steelers in week 1. Buffalo hasn’t just won, it’s destroyed every team it has played. The Bills have two shutouts and two 40+ point games in the last three weeks, including last week's 40-0 win over the Texans. The Chiefs have struggled a lot this year. Usually the Chiefs are 4-0 through the first four weeks, but they’re 2-2 with their only wins being a near loss to the Browns and a win against the Eagles in which Philadelphia had a chance to win. If Kansas City doesn’t figure things out soon, they’re in danger of losing the division. It’s hard to see the Chiefs allowing themselves to fall to 2-3, so expect the Chiefs to win, even though this game could be very close.

Expert Prediction: Chiefs 38, Bills 35

Analytics-Based Prediction: Bills 35, Chiefs 34

Colts at Ravens

The Colts were able to get back on track last week with their win against the Dolphins, but Miami was in that game even without Tua, so the Colts have continued to underwhelm this year. This week they have another must-win game against the Ravens, but they simply seem like they’ll be missing the playoffs this year. The Ravens have been great since their week 1 loss and need to win to keep up with the Browns and the Bengals, who are also 3-1. The Colts will have a hard time stopping this Ravens rushing attack and the Indianapolis offense has struggled all year, so the Ravens should be able to win.

Expert Prediction: Ravens 28, Colts 16

Analytics-Based Prediction: Ravens 30, Colts 17