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Cooper Kupp

WR, Rams

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Cooper Kupp had a bad year by his standards, especially in the touchdown department. Kupp had 92 catches for 974 yards and 3 touchdowns in 15 games (that would be 98 catches for 1,039 yards and 3 touchdowns in 16 games). The reason Kupp saw such a big drop in touchdown production was because of the fact that Sean McVay seemed to lose faith in Jared Goff in the 10-zone. The Rams passed the ball at a rate of 31%, which was 31st in the NFL, when they were in the 10-zone. In 2019 they passed at a 42% rate, 2018 they passed at a 46% rate, and 2017 they passed at a 49% rate. McVay seemed to slowly decrease Jared Goff’s role in the 10-zone as the years went by. Cooper Kupp gets most of his touchdowns in the 10-zone, so he saw a massive dropoff when the Rams fell to 31st in the NFL in passing rate in the 10-zone. Now that Matthew Stafford is on the Rams, McVay will have more confidence passing in the 10-zone, so Kupp should return to form when it comes to touchdowns. With Cam Akers hurt, the Rams will pass even more than originally planned, which means Kupp could see a career-high in touchdowns, especially when considering how good this offense will be with Matthew Stafford. The addition of Stafford should be great for Kupp because Stafford is significantly better than Jared Goff. Many are concerned that Stafford’s down-field nature as a passer will hurt Kupp’s upside, which is why Robert Woods is going ahead of Kupp in most drafts, but that won’t actually be the case. Matthew Stafford loves to pass to slot receivers. Just look at what Golden Tate and even Danny Amendola were able to do in Detroit with Stafford at quarterback. The Rams also brought in two deep threats in DeSean Jackson and Tutu Atwell, so defenses will need to guard against the deep shot which will open things up for Kupp underneath. Because of that, Cooper Kupp should be viewed as a high-end WR2 and is a good value pick at where he’s currently going in fantasy drafts. And he has great upside due to his touchdown ceiling; let’s not forget that Kupp was the WR4 in fantasy in 2019.

Standard Analytics-Based Projected Points: 156.4

PPR Analytics-Based Projected Points: 250.7

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