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Damien Harris

RB, Patriots

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Damien Harris is in a very crowded backfield in New England. James White is still there and the Patriots drafted Rhamondre Stevenson in the fourth round. Sony Michel is gone, however, which should give Harris an even larger role in this backfield. Damien Harris had some injury concerns throughout the season, but he ended up with 743 total yards and four touchdowns in 10 games. That ends up being 1,189 total yards and 6 touchdowns over the course of a 16-game season. Harris was incredible last year in terms of efficiency and advanced stats. He averaged over 5 yards per carry and had a PFF grade of 90.3, which is insanely high. He was sixth in the NFL in true yards per carry (which is yards per carry that discounts all runs over 10 yards to factor out the disproportionate impact of long runs) with 4.8. His breakaway run rate (how often he gets a run of 15 yards) was 16th in the NFL. He was eighth in the NFL in juke rate, which is essentially just his elusiveness. He was ninth in the NFL in yards created per touch. And he did all of that with defenses loading the box to stop the run because Cam Newton couldn’t throw and the Patriots had no real receivers. The Patriots went up against an average of 7.4 defenders in the box which was the most in the NFL. His stacked front carry rate was 42.3% (which means that there were more defensive players in the box than offensive blockers on 42.3% of his carries). Now that New England has added weapons like Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne and Mac Jones has taken over, defenses won’t be able to load the box nearly as much. Imagine what Harris could do with defenses less keyed in on the run game. The Patriots always have an elite offensive line so Harris will have room to run. Last year he was second in the NFL in yards before contact (3.1 yards). Joe Thuney is gone, but they replaced him by bringing in Trent Brown to play right tackle and kicking Michael Onwneu inside to play guard, which is his natural position. Onewnu is a stud so they won’t miss a beat. Harris will get more goal line carries next year as well because Mac Jones is the starter. Cam took a lot of goal line carries last year and that won't be the case with Mac Jones. Harris won’t get a ton of touches on a per game basis by virtue of how the Patriots like to use their running backs, but he should end up being a consistent RB2 and is a great value at where he’s currently going. And if there’s an injury or two in the Patriots backfield and Harris becomes the full-time starter, he has league-winning potential.

Standard Analytics-Based Projected Points: 196

PPR Analytics-Based Projected Points: 216.2

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