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Diontae Johnson

WR, Steelers

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Diontae Johnson wasn’t efficient last year, but he saw a ton of volume. In games that Johnson didn’t leave early with an injury, he averaged 11.8 targets per game. Davante Adams led the NFL in targets per game last year with 10.6. Johnson is getting elite WR1 volume. The reason why that’s the case is that he gets a ton of separation. Johnson has a 77.7% success rate against man coverage, an 87.8% success rate against zone coverage, and a 76.9% success rate against press coverage. He can line up anywhere on the field and get open, which is why he had 148 targets in 15 games last year. Johnson didn’t do a great job turning those targets into numbers, however, as he only had 88 receptions for 923 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 games. He left two games early with an injury, however, so he likely would have had over 1,000 yards if healthy. If you remove those two games, Johnson had 87 receptions for 925 yards and 7 touchdowns in 13 games. (107 catches for 1,138 yards and 9 touchdowns in 16 games). Those numbers aren’t great given how many targets he gets, but they’re still really solid. Johnson will likely take a step up this year like most third year receivers, so he’s likely going to be more efficient. At the same time, he isn’t going to see the same volume as he did last season because the Steelers brought in Najee Harris and will transition to a more run-heavy approach. Pittsburgh passed the ball at the second highest rate in the NFL last year because they had no run game, so that’ll change this year. Because of that, expect an increase in efficiency from Diontae Johnson but a decrease in volume. Overall, Diontae Johnson will still get WR1 volume, but he needs to improve his efficiency if he hopes to be a good fantasy option. Johnson should be viewed as a WR2 with upside to become a WR1 if he is able to improve.

Standard Analytics-Based Projected Points: 136

PPR Analytics-Based Projected Points: 241.6

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