Justin Herbert had arguably the best rookie season ever for a quarterback last year with 4,336 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 234 rushing yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns in 15 games (that’s a 16-game pace of 4,625 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, 250 rushing yards, and 5 rushing touchdowns). Herbert is now set to take a step forward like all second year quarterbacks do. Herbert definitely has room to improve, as he was 14th in passing touchdown rate at 5.2%, he was 12th in bad throw rate at 18%, and he only had 3.7 rush attempts per game. As Herbert gets more comfortable in the NFL and continues to learn, he will get a lot better. Herbert is a great value pick in fantasy because a lot of people see what he did last year and project him to do the same thing, if not regress. They don’t take into account that Herbert did all of that as a rookie. He should be significantly better this year, and for that reason he has top-5, maybe even top overall player upside. Herbert is also in a much better situation than he was in last year. Joe Lombardi is the new offensive coordinator for the Chargers and is known for being incredibly pass-heavy. The Chargers also have the single most improved offensive line in the NFL this year. They did lose Hunter Henry, but Austin Ekeler is back and fully healthy, so he will be a great weapon for Herbert. Herbert is slightly riskier than other top quarterbacks because he has only been for one year and there are times when players fall off in their second season. Look at what happened with Baker Mayfield. Most of the time, however, players take a step forward (e.g. Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray). Overall, Justin Herbert shouldn’t be drafted in the top-5 because he’s slightly more risky than top-5 quarterbacks, but he should go in the next tier of players as a great value with incredible upside.