We at Gridiron Draft think the best method to use for defenses is streaming (changing defenses each week based on matchup using the waiver wire). This is because it's very hard to predict success for fantasy defenses because the best fantasy defenses aren't usually the best actual defenses. The best fantasy defenses usually just score a ton of defensive touchdowns, which isn’t predictive year-to-year. In fact, over the last 10 seasons, there has been ONE defense that was drafted inside the top-5 fantasy defenses that finished the year inside the top-5 fantasy defenses. It's nearly impossible to predict success for fantasy defenses, so streaming is the best option. There are three factors used to determine which defense to stream:
1. They are favored to win their actual NFL game
Why would you start a defense that’s projected to lose their game? The bigger the spread, the better the choice.
2. They are playing at home
Home field advantage plays a major role in the outcome of games and defenses perform much better at home. There’s a reason why the spreads shift a full 3 points on the road, 0 points at a neutral location, and 3 points in favor of the home team. People underestimate how big of an advantage playing at home is from a real life standpoint. The players get to sleep at home, get into their routine, be with their family all week, the crowd is behind them, etc.
3. Projected Low Point Total
Going back to betting, we want to look at the projected over/under for the game. A lower point total means less fantasy points deducted for points allowed by your fantasy defense. The lower the total, the better the choice.
With all this in mind, our defense rankings are based on which defenses we think will be the best over the course of an entire season, but we advise that you draft a defense in order to stream it for week one. Our top streaming options for week one are the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Denver Broncos, so we would advise targeting them in your draft. The Patriots, Bills, and Ravens would all be the best for week one but they are going too early in the draft to be considered a streaming option. If you can’t get one of the three best streaming options, the Philadelphia Eagles make sense, though they are not at home. The Carolina Panthers could also work, but they are not the favorite. We advise that you don't draft a defense until the second to last round with the last round being used on a kicker.
Tier 1
1. New England Patriots
2. San Francisco 49ers
Tier 2
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. Buffalo Bills
Tier 3
6. Chicago Bears
7. Kansas City Chiefs
8. New Orleans Saints
9. Los Angeles Chargers
Tier 4
10. Green Bay Packers
11. Denver Broncos (Great Week 1 Streaming Option)
12. Seattle Seahawks
13. Indianapolis Colts
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
15. Tennessee Titans
16. Philadelphia Eagles (Solid Week 1 Streaming Option)
17. Los Angeles Rams
Tier 5
18. Dallas Cowboys
19. Washington Football Team
20. Minnesota Vikings (Great Week 1 Streaming Option)
21. Houston Texans
Tier 6
22. Arizona Cardinals
23. Detroit Lions (Great Week 1 Streaming Option)
24. Cleveland Browns
25. Carolina Panthers (Solid Week 1 Streaming Option)
26. Las Vegas Raiders
27. New York Giants
Tier 7
28. Jacksonville Jaguars
29. Cincinnati Bengals
30. Miami Dolphins
31. Atlanta Falcons
32. New York Jets