We at Gridiron Draft think the best method to use for defenses is streaming (changing defenses each week based on matchup using the waiver wire). This is because it's very hard to predict success for fantasy defenses because the best fantasy defenses aren't usually the best actual defenses. The best fantasy defenses usually just score a ton of defensive touchdowns, which isn’t predictive year-to-year. In fact, over the last 10 seasons, there has been ONE defense that was drafted inside the top-5 fantasy defenses that finished the year inside the top-5 fantasy defenses. It's nearly impossible to predict success for fantasy defenses, so streaming is the best option. There are three factors used to determine which defense to stream:
1. They are favored to win their actual NFL game
Why would you start a defense that’s projected to lose their game? The bigger the spread, the better the choice.
2. They are playing at home
Home field advantage plays a major role in the outcome of games and defenses perform much better at home. There’s a reason why the spreads shift a full 3 points on the road, 0 points at a neutral location, and 3 points in favor of the home team. People underestimate how big of an advantage playing at home is from a real life standpoint. The players get to sleep at home, get into their routine, be with their family all week, the crowd is behind them, etc.
3. Projected Low Point Total
Going back to betting, we want to look at the projected over/under for the game. A lower point total means less fantasy points deducted for points allowed by your fantasy defense. The lower the total, the better the choice.
With all this in mind, our defense rankings are based on which defenses we think will be the best over the course of an entire season, but we advise that you draft a defense in order to stream it for week one. Our top streaming options for week one are the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots (even though the Patriots aren’t favored to win their game, the spread is close), and San Francisco 49ers (the 49ers aren’t at home, however) so we would advise targeting them in your draft. The Los Angeles Rams would be the best option for week one but they are going too early in the draft to be considered a streaming option. If you can’t get one of the three best streaming options, the Jacksonville Jaguars make sense, though they are not at home. We advise that you don't draft a defense until the second to last round with the last round being used on a kicker.
Tier 1
1. Los Angeles Rams
Tier 2
2. Washington Football Team
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. San Francisco 49ers (Great Week 1 Streaming Option)
Tier 3
6. New England Patriots (Great Week 1 Streaming Option)
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Denver Broncos
Tier 4
9. Indianapolis Colts
10. Cleveland Browns
11. Buffalo Bills
12. New Orleans Saints
Tier 5
13. Los Angeles Chargers
14. Miami Dolphins
15. Kansas City Chiefs
Tier 6
16. Carolina Panthers (Great Week 1 Streaming Option)
17. Arizona Cardinals
Tier 7
18. Chicago Bears
19. Minnesota Vikings
20. Green Bay Packers
Tier 8
21. Seattle Seahawks
22. New York Giants
23. Philadelphia Eagles
24. Tennessee Titans
25. Jacksonville Jaguars (Solid Week 1 Streaming Option)
Tier 9
26. Dallas Cowboys
27. Atlanta Falcons
28. New York Jets
Tier 10
29. Detroit Lions
30. Oakland Raiders
31. Cincinnati Bengals
Tier 11
32. Houston Texans