Bills at Texans

The Bills are coming into this game with one of the best defenses in the NFL and an explosive but inconsistent offense. If Buffalo can get going on the ground in this game, they will be very difficult to beat because they will likely get one or two big plays to John Brown as well as some turnovers from their great defense. The Texans will need to focus on shutting down the run by keying in on Josh Allen whenever he gets outside the pocket and keeping their front seven aggressive while sealing the edge. This will be difficult considering they have the 25th ranked run defense, but they can do it because they won't need to double team any of the Bills' receivers, though John Brown makes them require a safety up top because of his speed. On the other side of the ball, the match up to watch is DeAndre Hopkins vs. Tre'Davious White. It will be interesting to see whether or not Hopkins will be double teamed or shadowed by White, but either way the Bills need to contain him if they are going to have a chance of winning this game. They will also need to contain Deshaun Watson on the ground. Overall this will be a very close game with two evenly matched teams, but the Texans have much more playoff experience than the Bills and are playing at home, so they should eventually be able to win this game.

Expert Prediction: Texans 24, Bills 21

Analytics-Based Prediction: Bills 17, Texans 10

Titans at Patriots

The Patriots are kicking themselves after losing out on a bye after falling to the lowly Dolphins at the last second, and now they are in one of the worst positions possible because the Titans match up incredibly well against the Patriots and have a very good chance of winning this game. They have the ability to move the ball against this elite Patriots defense because of their power run game led by Derrick Henry. The Patriots appear to be very strong against the run when looking at the stats, as they are ranked 6th in the NFL, but their run defense is a lot weaker than that indicates. The Patriots have been up big in many games this year so their opponents haven't been running the ball, resulting in a low run yardage output, but anyone who watched the Patriots this year knows that their run defense is a major flaw. In fact, they rank 13th in YPC allowed, which is still solid, but when taking into account that they had an incredibly easy schedule this year and didn't face many solid running threats, that number is a whole lot worse. The Titans should be able to run the ball constantly to move the ball, and that will set up the play action, and though the Patriots secondary is good enough to take that away for the most part, they will still give up a few big plays because of it. Not to mention the fact that the Titans always seem to slip Derrick Henry out for a screen that he takes to the house when you least expect it. On the other side of the ball, the Patriots offense has really struggled this year, as their best receivers are all extremely limited. Julian Edelman probably shouldn't be playing right now because he has so many serious injuries, while Mohamed Sanu hasn't caught on and is playing through an injury as well. N'Keal Harry also hasn't caught on, as he missed most of the season with an injury and Phillip Dorsett is incredibly unreliable. The tight end position is nonexistent as well, leaving mainly the Patriots running backs to move the ball, and they can only do so much. James White can get some solid receiving yards while Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead move the ball on the ground, so the Patriots will be able to get some points with a solid chunk of yard every once in a while, but they won't be able to do much. Not to mention that Tom Brady simply isn't the same player, and it's not just because of the weapons, as he is constantly missing easy throws without pressure and giving up on plays way too early. The Titans also have Mike Vrabel, a former Patriots player, as their coach, and Bill Belichick always struggles against people who know his system. At the same time, it's the Patriots at home in the playoffs coming off of a loss, and all signs from the past two decades point to them somehow pulling it off. This will be a close game, but the Patriots have too many things working against them to come away with a win.

Expert Prediction: Titans 21, Patriots 17

Analytics-Based Prediction: Titans 17, Patriots 10

Vikings at Saints

The Vikings will have a chance in this game , but the Saints have much more experience in the playoffs and have been a better team so far this year. The Vikings should be able to have some success running the ball with Dalvin Cook while moving the ball well through the air with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, but Kirk Cousins isn't very reliable in the playoffs and will likely make some big mistakes. On the other side of the ball, Alvin Kamara hasn't been himself this year but he may be able to put up a big game for the Saints now that they are back in the playoffs. The main match up in this game, however, will be Michael Thomas vs. Xavier Rhodes. Thomas will be the Saints main way of moving the ball, and given how well he's played this year compared to everyone in the Vikings secondary he should be able to have a big game. The Vikings will likely try to put Rhodes on him as well as somebody else to ensure that Thomas doesn't carry the offense, but he should still be able to keep the chains moving. At the end of the day, the Saints have more experience, are at home, and most importantly have a major advantage at quarterback despite the fact that Drew Brees has slipped a bit, so they should be able to win this game.

Expert Prediction: Saints 27, Vikings 21

Analytics-Based Prediction: Saints 20, Vikings 7

Seahawks at Eagles

The Seahawks and the Eagles have been polar opposites this year. The Eagles benefited from the worst division in the league and made it to the playoffs despite the fact that they didn't really deserve to while the Seahawks were one of the best teams in the NFC but were stuck in a division with the 49ers so they are stuck as a Wild Card. The Seahawks have a significant advantage at quarterback and with their receiving core. Russell Wilson has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year and he has Tyler Lockett to throw to along with D.K. Metcalf, who despite being a rookie and showing some big problems like drops, fumbles, and route running problems, has been solid. With Metcalf's athleticism, he could pop off for a huge day at any time. The Eagle's weak secondary will have a very hard time defending the Seahawks' passing offense. The Seahawks lack any viable running threat, however, so the Eagles will be able to dedicate all of the focus to stopping the pass. On the other side of the ball the Eagles have pretty much no receiving weapons other than Zach Ertz, who can be taken away with a double team. Boston Scott could have a big game, however, and allow the Eagles to move the ball. At the end of the day the Seahawks are simply more reliable at quarterback and have been a better team all year, so they should be able to win despite being on the road.

Expert Prediction: Seahawks 27, Eagles 17

Analytics-Based Prediction: Eagles 30, Seahawks 24